Comdex (1979-2002): R.I.P.?

April 3, 2003
©2003 Rich Stillman, Waystation Partners

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Amy Wohl's newsletter this week brought news of the bankruptcy of Key3Media, the company that ran the Comdex trade shows for the past few years. Bankruptcy, of course, is not necessarily the end of the road. Key3Media has restructured debt and has announced the continuation of their flagship shows, including NetWorld+Interop, Seybold San Francisco, and Comdex Fall 2003, through the end of this year.

Unfortunately, finding venture capital to prop them up for another year was only the company's first obstacle. The second and more difficult question is whether Key3Media has learned enough from their prolonged near-death experience to make the changes that will allow these shows to survive. As I pointed out in an earlier article, I do not agree with the skeptics who say that large tech trade shows have run their course. As long as corporate IT management is faced with the rapid development of technologies that have a significant impact on their operations, shows like Comdex will have a potential role. And any security-challenged, cost-constrained, competitive-advantage-seeking IT manager in 2003 who isn't looking for a good way to get informed on the potential value and pitfalls of emerging technologies like wireless and cellular networking, biometrics and Linux probably needs Comdex more than he or she knows.

To summarize my previous suggestions, there are three important ways Key3Media can keep a good thing going:

Cut prices. It makes sense that a show that attracts 40,000 visitors is less valuable to exhibitors than one that attracts 200,000. It's also true that a show with 1,000 mostly mid-tier and small exhibitors is worth less to attendees than one with 2,500 exhibitors that include most of the major industry players. If Key3Media pretends it's 1999 and keeps booth prices and attendance fees high, they will drive away even more exhibitors and attendees and eventually make Comdex entirely irrelevant. Accepting that there will be a couple of lean years, in both show size and revenue, is the best way to lay the foundation for the long-term survival of the Comdex brand.
Court the media. The technology press has a vested interest in preserving Comdex or in creating something very much like it. Bringing everyone to the same place for one week a year gives analysts, columnists and pundits enough material for at least three months of their own product, and they know it. Key3Media and the actual media can both benefit from the continuation of Comdex. A little outreach to the fourth estate would probably pay off in advance press. The public has to believe that Comdex remains viable, and the press has complete control over that lever.
Go online. Comdex has had an excellent online presence for the past two years, but Key3Media failed to exploit it: they didn't tell anyone it was there while the show was going on, and they stopped the information spigot the day the show closed. The Comdex brand is all about vendor exposure, information sharing and education; should the need for any of those things stop just because it's no longer the third week of November? Making Comdex a year-round online portal will reinforce the value of the annual face-fest in Las Vegas.

None of this will be easy. Complicating matters is the announcement by Sheldon Adelson, the founder and original CEO of Comdex, that he will run a competing show across town during Comdex week. By attracting more exhibitors and attendees than either could alone, the two shows could accidentally make critical mass easier to reach. Or the double registration fees and round-town confusion could drive everyone away - do you think either company will hire shuttle buses to transport their attendees to the other's show?

Adelson's move means that Key3Media is not totally in charge of their own destiny. But the folks at Key3Media can take actions that will go a long way toward assuring the long-term survival of their show. And in spite of the high prices, the crowds, the noise and Key3Media's past arrogance, it's a show worth saving.